International Conflict's Impact On The Stock Market: A GDELT Project-Based Event Study

B. O. van Bruggen's master's thesis explores macro-level stock market forecasting using GDELT. The abstract reads:

This research is an attempt to statistically demonstrate this phenomenon that there is a relation between the stock market and international conflicts and, moreover, that this effect is negative. For this the GDELT project database, an entirely new and innovative dataset, on international events is used. This thesis uses an event study methodology with which the abnormal stock market returns are calculated for the different events. Evidence is found in favour of a negative stock market reaction around the time of the international conflict. The media plays a large role in this giving high-attention events a more negative stock market reaction. The severity of the events plays a role but only for a larger period after the event. Religious events also have a tendency to give a larger negative stock market reaction.

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