Dissertation: Can We Forecast Conflict?

Kalev's doctoral dissertation was successfully defended in March 2013 at the University of Illinois Graduate School of Library and Information Science titled "Can We Forecast Conflict? A Framework for Forecasting Global Human Societal Behavior Using Latent Narrative Indicators." His chair was Les Gasser and his committee consisted of Vernon Burton, Marshall Scott Poole, and John Unsworth. It presented a novel framework for evaluating new classes of latent-based forecasting measures on high-resolution geographically-enriched quantitative databases of human behavior and in particular, the automated identification and tracking of "master naratives" (metanarratives) in the global news sphere. At the time of its publication, it was the largest political event dataset ever created, surpassed today only by GDELT. See both the full dissertation and dissertation defense slides.